NFL Preseason Betting Strategy

NFL Preseason Betting Strategy

What are two main types of NFL Preseason Betting Strategy?

NFL PreseasonThere are at least two separate trains of thought when it comes NFL preseason betting strategy. Many people who place bets tend to shy away from the NFL preseason, not wanting to risk losing their money on a bunch of players who are not likely to be in the league when the regular season starts.

Other people who place bets on the NFL preseason tend to believe that the NFL preseason can offer some genuine betting opportunities, as coaches will usually state how long they plan to play their starters, while other teams have a decided edge in the rotation of it’s quarterbacks. A team playing an NFL veteran in the fourth quarter has a solid advantage against a team playing a free agent.

NFL Preseason Betting Strategy Systems

Whatever theory you might subscribe to, it’s vital to take note of a reversal in trends over the past few seasons in relation to the favorite covering the number or the percentage of time the underdogs cover the point spread.

NFL Preseason Betting Strategy Favorites

Between the years of 2008 and 2011, favorites were usually unhealthy wagers, going just 112-133-12 against the number, which comes out to 45.7%, but over the past three seasons 104-86-4, which is 54.7% and are 4-3 through Thursday’s games so far this season.

NFL Preseason Betting Strategy Underdogs

Other trends have also seen quite a bit of a change, as home underdogs were 52-31-3 (62.7%) between the years of 2003 and 2010. Since 2011, home underdogs have done an extremely disappointing 13-24-2, which is just 35.1%.

One of the biggest mistakes a NFL bettor can make  regarding NFL preseason betting strategy is to look at the numbers as a whole instead of looking at each week’s numbers individually.

NFL Preseason Betting Strategy Underdogs of 6+

Another older system that has not done well in the last three seasons is the underdog of six points or more. After going 30-19 between 2003 and 2011, the big underdogs have gone only 9-9 over the past three seasons. However, a person who is betting on the NFL preseason and who breaks the preseason down into individual weeks would see that the big underdogs have a nice 8-3 record in Weeks 3 and 4 and are just 1-6 in the first two preseason games.

NFL Preseason Betting Strategy Other Trends

Other trends tend to follow suit as the majority of NFL coaches have their routine down to a tee in regards to the NFL preseason.  Starters usually don’t play very much during the opening week of the preseason as a final tune-up for the other players, and more often than not, the first unit will play until halftime and won’t play at all during the fourth game, which also yields a certain point spread tendencies, such as Week 3 favorites of 5.5 points or less being 27-14-1 against the spread since the beginning of the 2011 preseason.

If you’re going to bet on the NFL preseason, don’t be afraid to be choosy when you select your spots. The majority of games are usually going to be a crapshoot, where the deciding factor comes down to luck. However if you focus your NFL preseason betting strategy on games where you can find an edge you may be able to turn a profit.

Remember to your NFL Preseason Betting Strategy on the Following:

  1. Focus on looking at the past trends, underdogs, favorites etc.
  2. Consider what the coaches are saying in regarding which quarterbacks are going to see the most playing time,
  3. Note how long the starters will play, and the line movement, sharp money tents to know best in the preseason.

Those who decide to wait until they have several factors in their favor are more likely to come out ahead in the preseason than those who place wagers on games simply because it’s the NFL preseason.

Addition – NFL Preseason Teaser Betting

NFL Preseason Betting Strategy Teasers

One other profitable strategy is to bet teasers in games where you have a low total. This strategy works because it is less likely that games with a low total will result in a blowout. The preseason also often features less scoring as the players havent worked together as much, leading to more of the final numbers landing closer to the projected spread.

When betting teasers its important to remember teaser strategy. Check out this article for more info on teasers.

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