NFL Teaser Strategy

Introduction to Basic NFL Teaser Betting and Advanced Teaser Strategy

nfl teasers cheerleader girlsUsually, when people bet on the NFL, it normally revolves around a single game point spread and total points. While single bets are the norm among most NFL sports bettors, there are other types of bets that allow for more games and individual outcomes. The most common type of multi-outcome wager is the parlay. A recent variation of this concept is catching on amongst professional sports bettors is the NFL teaser bet. The NFL teaser bet has recently become a mainstream type of bet because Stanford Wong released a book in 2001 called “Sharp Sports Betting.” These types of teasers are now known as Wong Teasers, and is being used amongst more and more NFL sports betters every year. The strategy is even known among new punters. Let’s take a look at why even novice sports bettors may want to consider adding this NFL teaser to his betting arsenal.

People who know how to handicap football disagree on teasers more than anything else. Some handicappers are for sure that teasers belong in the same category as parlays, reverses, and other bets that are usually coined “sucker bets.” Other NFL handicappers believe that if you pick and choose your spots and look for specific key numbers to tease, you can be more profitable than just playing straight bets.

One of the most common types of teaser bets is the six-point, two-team teaser. Both your teams would have to win in order for you to win your bet, but you can move the point spread six points in any direction you so choose. What this means is that you can make a 7-point favorite a 1-point favorite or a 5-point underdog an 11-point underdog. This results in both teams needing to win in order for you to win your bet. You now need to win 72.37% of your games if you are to break even, assuming you are laying the standard -110 on your teaser bets.

The History of the Basic NFL Teaser Strategy:

Screen shot 2014-12-18 at 1.03.07 AMWhen it comes to the idea of “basic strategy teasers,” Stanford Wong is considered to be the inventor of the idea. He used push charts in his 2001 book “Sharp Sports Betting” to show that utilizing point spread modifications on +1.5 to +2.5 underdogs and -7.5 to -8.5 favorites is a pretty profitable sports betting system when the sports bettor has been given the correct teaser odds by the casino or sports book. Mr. Wong Eventually beat the books at a rate of more then 70.95% and he started to track and prove that winning with teasers was profitable given their current state and general availability.

This has been a great revelation in “basic strategy teasers” and was made possible because the bookmakers often offered a standard 2 team 6 point teaser at +100 or even money. After Wong’s strategy went fully public and became widely understood, it forced bookmakers to adjust their odds to -110 on a 6 point 2 team teaser.

Now, it is well known the most common margins of victory in football in order of probability are 3, 7, 10, 6, 14, 4, 1, 17, 13 and 2. This lays the foundation for more advanced and unusual profitable teaser parlays. In today’s current market, basic strategy teasers on a 2 team teaser do not produce as they used to due to the new odds. However it is still possible to use the strategy on the more unusual teasers. For example, the 4 game 6 point teaser at +300 can still get you a profit if applied properly. This is a difficult strategy that will be covered in a future advanced teaser strategy article and it is also covered in the Sharp Sports Betting Book.

An NFL Teaser Strategy Primer:

The teaser is a parlay wager that leverages adjusted point spreads, and is mainly available online. Many of your local based sportsbooks will not offer them. For football, the general starting wager movement is six points, however online sportsbooks like 5Dimes offer teasers from 4 ½ all the way to 20 points.

Example:

This Sunday there are three wagers that you like:

Falcons -7.5, Saints +1.5, and Giants +5.5

Instead of straight betting games point spread individually or in a 3 team parlay, you can create a three team six point NFL teaser bet of:

Falcons -1.5, Saints +7.5, Giants +11.5.

In order to cash this ticket and win your wager, it will require that all three teams meet their point spreads. The majority of online sports books will pay a winning three team teaser at the odds of 1.8 to 1. And even though odds will vary from sportsbook to sportsbook, you will definitely want to be on the lookout for 2 teams teaser at -110 or better odds, 3 team teasers at +180 odds or better and 4 team teasers +300 or better odds.

NFL Teaser Push Rules:

Teaser pushes should always be the same all the way across the board but it is always a wise idea to check each site you are playing to confirm the teaser. The rules generally read if a game in a teaser pushes while any other game is a loss, the teaser bet is marked as a loss. Teaser pushes and wins should reduce the same as they would in a parlay.

Examples:

A three team teaser with the outcome: win/win/push is paid as a two team teaser parlay. In the case where there are no losses on the teaser but only one win also the betting slip is generally refunded. For example, if a two team teaser results in a push/win senerio there is no action on the ticket and the wager is returned.

Introduction to Advanced Teaser Strategy and Parlays:

It’s been proven that when betting three team football teasers at +180, we need the parlay to win 70.95% of the time. To find out if it was at an advantage to wager on the standard point spread or a modified teaser point spread, we will need to compare a variety of factors. If we make a standard wager at a discounted price from a sportsbook like 5dimes, we will likely pay -105.

We can use the risk divided by return formula to determine our needed break-even point for betting straight bets at -105. A $105 bet returns $205 (our $105 stake plus $100 win), so the math is 105/205=0.5122, which calculates to 51.22% wins needed in order to break even. The difference between the 70.95% break even rate in a teaser and the 51.22% betting straight with diminished vig is 19.73%.

Intelligent sports bettors who are familiar with teasers start to think on different levels about the potential results of the above. To find out if a teaser parlay is a more favorable choice than a straight wager, we need to know if those six additional points increases the win probability by 19.73%.

The fact of the matter is that most teasers are generally sucker bets, because very few times will six points increase your the probability of you winning by 19.73%. To do this, you will need to cross key win numbers noted in the basic strategy section above. This is why basic strategy teasers are generally profitable when carefully studied and chosen.

An NFL Teaser Strategy Updated for 2014 with Examples

Since more games in the NFL are ending closer to the point spread than ever before, there are going to be a number of games where both teams win on teaser wagers, regardless of if you chose the favorite or the underdog. It’s the other games that will determine how you fare overall.

There are several strategies when it comes to teaser betting, such as look for good defensive teams who are less likely to be soundly defeated. The logic is that they may not cover the point spread, they are still likely to cover a teaser because they can keep the opposition from scoring too many points.

But the best method is to simply look for the two key number groupings and concentrate on those. The first number grouping is favorites of 7 to 9 points. When used in a teaser, these teams now become favorites of 1 to 3 points. Collectively between 2006 and 2013, these teams posted a teaser record of 253-80-7, which translates to 76% and is good enough to show a flat-bet profit. Of these, the 8.5-point favorites teased down to -2.5 performed the best, going a remarkable 41-6 (87.2%) when used in a 6-point teaser. Most sportsbooks will count a win and a tie on a two-team teaser a push, but there are those who will grade a win and a push as a loss. Even if you consider the seven pushes as losses, the winning percentage of 74.4% is still high enough to be considered an expected positive bet.

The second number grouping consists of the small underdogs from +1 to +2.5 points. When used in a teaser, the new spreads are +7 to +8.5. Teams in this range posted a collective teaser record of 287-87-11 (76.7%) between 2006 and 2013. The number that performed the best was taking 2.5-point underdogs and moving them to 8.5-point underdogs, as they posted a 106-25 (80.9%) teaser record. Once again, even if you consider the pushes as a loss, your adjusted winning percentage of 74.5% is high enough for a positive expectation.

The statistics show that when used properly, along with some common handicapping sense, teasers may be better wagers than were previously thought and should not be instantly discounted as a sucker bet.

One Additional Note On Teasers

Teaser strategy is always changing and online sportsbooks are constantly competing for business. This has lead to some fascinating Arbitrage opportunities.

I often see teaser opportunities with spreads as far off as 2 points on different sportsbooks.

This is because some sports books like 5Dimes and Bovada or Bodog will shade their lines slightly to balance their books and makes some specific teaser bets slightly less profitable. This often leads to occasions where you can get a FREE hedge bet by placing a teaser on one site and betting the opposite direction on another site. If you can hit 1 out of 20 of these at reduced juice you are going to make some money.

This is another reason that it pays to have multiple accounts with the various online sportsbooks, and why placing bets at different sites can be profitable.

Beginner Teaser Strategy Conclusion:

Even though maximizing “basic teaser strategy” may be the easiest to understand and complete when it comes to betting on football, there is always a lot of math that needs to be done and more advice that you can seek out in order to become a more profitable bettor. Try to read articles on the current betting market, and be sure to subscribe to betting services that give you an advantage and make sure you continue to do your homework on what will work and what won’t work for your current wagering resources. Remember to always manage your bankroll well, and do not become over confident about your betting skills. Bet within your comfort zone and try different strategies like parlays and teasers.

And even though football teaser bets are not offered at every single sportsbook, the odds say betting this way will be at an advantage over the long haul. With hard work, lots of study, and the right partnerships, you can land in the football teasers winners circle, and that is an amazing feeling.

As you become a veteran NFL handicapper it will be critical to consider carefully all wagers that are available to you in any given betting market. I highly recommend that any beginning sports bettor study some of the professional teaser betting programs to get a feel for what it takes to find plus expected value in the many different NFL teaser betting situations offered by the online sports books and casinos.

I hope this article has helped you understand NCAA college betting or NFL football betting on a deeper level.

Get started today with an account at 5Dimes!

banner.asp

Leave A Response

* Denotes Required Field